While it’s probable most Central Florida homeowners experienced a jump in home values this year, some are seeing increases of more than 50%. 

Migration triggered by the Covid-19 pandemic and low interest rates supercharged the local housing market last year. That led to rapid price increases that continue to this summer. In the first half of 2021, Windermere, Ocoee and Lake Nona were among the local communities with the fastest home price growth, according to the Orlando Regional Realtor Association. 

Trends in the residential real estate market are important, as the housing market often is considered a reflection of the local economy's overall health. Escalating home prices can make homes unaffordable for buyers. At the same time, they create more equity-rich homeowners, The Business Journals report.

Across Central Florida, the median home price leaped 14.5% between January and June, according to the Orlando Regional Realtor Association. The June median home price of $315,000 is the highest on record at the Realtor association.

Nationwide, home prices in June increased at their fastest rate since 1979, according to an Aug. 3 report by Irvine, California-based property data firm CoreLogic Inc. While CoreLogic recorded a 12.5% year-over-year price increase in metro Orlando, Central Florida home prices are not skyrocketing as fast as the 17% increase registered nationwide. 

“Florida in general still looks relatively affordable compared to the rest of the country,” said Lesley Deutch, managing principal of John Burns Real Estate Consulting LLC.

Despite blistering price increases, CoreLogic predicts the rate at which home prices climb will slow in the next 12 months. The firm expects demand to taper off and housing inventory to recover, according to the report. 
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Likewise, National Association of Realtors Chief Economic Lawrence Yun in June said a slight slowdown in price gains may happen later this year or next year. "Home price growth will be in the single digits in 2022 … A home price decline is unlikely.” 

It’s no secret Orlando homes are in high demand — and now a new study shows how much some buyers are willing to pay to snag their dream home.

In the second quarter, 0.8% of metro Orlando homes sold for at least 30% more than list price, according to an Aug. 17 report by Zillow Group Inc. That number may seem puny, but it represents 99 home sales in metro Orlando, based on second-quarter home sales data recorded by the Orlando Regional Realtor Association. 

Homes that sell way over list price are becoming more common in Central Florida, as only 0.3% of homes sold for at least 30% more than list price in the first quarter, Zillow reported. Plus, one local home sold a jaw-dropping $1 million over list price last quarter. 

These numbers represent the extremes, but they highlight a reality of today’s housing market: Homes selling above list price is the norm. In June, the average Central Florida sales price of $383,113 was more than the average list price of $383,045, according to the Realtor association. In July, they were practically the same. 

These numbers reflect the intense demand for homes. Low interest rates boosted the housing market across the U.S., and a flood of new residents into Florida supercharged the Orlando residential real estate sector. However, a shortage of homes turned house hunting into bidding wars, driving up prices and worsening affordability. 

Seattle-based Zillow (Nasdaq: ZG) in another study reported mortgage payments in metro Orlando are becoming less affordable. Homeowners in metro Orlando on average spend 19.9% of their monthly income on mortgage payments, but Zillow projects that will rise to 21.6% by the end of the year. 

The rapid price gains are creating some hesitancy among local buyers who want to up-size or down-size to a new house, said Christine Elias, Realtor and founder of Winter Park-based Urban Dog Group at Coldwell Banker Realty. 

Meanwhile, the growing number of listings hitting the market could reduce competition and cool the industry, Zillow Data Analyst Treh Manhertz wrote in the report. “The market’s runaway growth is showing signs of slowing. Inventory halted its long downward slide and has grown for the last few months, which should translate into reduced competition.” 

Still, many expect the market to remain hot for some time. Demand from out-of-state buyers and investors, who tend to have deeper pockets than local buyers, is as strong as ever, Elias said. Experts including PNC Financial Services Group Senior Economist Abbey Omodunbi and National Association of Realtors Chief Economist Lawrence Yun previously said the housing sector will remain a seller's market even if it slows a bit. 

If rising interest rates slow down home sales, that would take pressure off the region’s depleted inventory of homes. In May, there was only a 0.73-month supply of homes on the market in Central Florida, far below the six months of inventory that indicates a balanced housing market. Less demand and more inventory likely would stall metro Orlando’s escalating home prices.

Still, major changes in the nation’s hectic housing market are months away, Yun said in a June 29 report. “Some calming of the market is only expected to happen in late autumn of this year and into 2022. Home price growth will be in the single digits in 2022 … A home price decline is unlikely.” 

The trajectory of the residential real estate market is important, as every home sale in the state has an estimated local economic impact of $90,300, according to the National Association of Realtors. In addition, the housing market often is considered a reflection of the local economy's overall health.

Amid a historic period in Orlando’s red-hot housing market, real estate professionals identify one factor that eventually may slow home demand: mortgage interest rates, which multiple analysts expect to climb later this year. 
Rates rising above the current historically-low levels will not crater the housing market, but instead cause some buyers to “back off,” Orlando Regional Realtor Association 2021 President Natalie Arrowsmith told Orlando Business Journal. “Something at some point has to give. I think it’s going to be interest rates.” 

Rock-bottom interest rates, which influence what a borrower pays on a mortgage, contributed to the past year’s housing boom. The average mortgage interest rate in Central Florida hit a 20-year-low of 2.7% in December, according to the Orlando Regional Realtor Association. It ticked up to 3.07% in March but slowly fell to 2.97% in May. 

These low rates make a home purchase more appealing. There were 3,872 home sales in Central Florida in May, the third-strongest month for home sales in 20 years, according to the Realtor association. The two months with more home sales were also in 2021, a testament to the intense seller’s market in metro Orlando partly caused by new residents pouring into the region. 

However, interest rates are projected to undergo an upward swing in the second half of the year. For example, National Association of Realtors Chief Economic Lawrence Yun expects the 30-year fixed mortgage rate to hover around 3.5% nationwide by the end of 2021, according to a June 28 report from the organization. 

Likewise, Greg McBride, chief financial analyst for financial services company Bankrate LLC, said in a July 1 report that rates likely will creep up in July due to actions by the Federal Reserve, economic growth and higher inflation. 

After recording the quickest recovery in the nation's history in the wake of the COVID-19 pandemic, the U.S. economy is expected to kick into higher gear in 2021. That is according to analysis from the National Association of Realtors® delivered today during the 2021 REALTORS® Legislative Meetings & Trade Expo at the Residential Economic Issues and Trends Forum.

With the number of vaccinated Americans increasing and new coronavirus cases on the decline, NAR Chief Economist Lawrence Yun anticipates the economy will grow 4.5% in 2021.

"Consumers will begin to spend massive savings, and do more shopping, restaurant dining, traveling and in-person house hunting," he said.

While home sales continue to be an economic bright spot, unemployment remains an issue. Eight million jobs that were lost during the pandemic have not yet been recaptured. Yun maintains that job recovery is taking longer due to some friction in the labor market, including workers being unable to return to their jobs, where work-from-home is not an option for many. As economic growth strengthens, 4 million jobs are projected to be gained this year.

Despite high unemployment, the economic recovery – propelled by favorable monetary and fiscal policies – has created the hottest housing market in nearly 50 years. The marketplace has surpassed pre-pandemic levels in terms of sales, but the fast-paced recovery has contributed to historic home price growth. In fact, an NAR report released Tuesday found that 89% of metros saw prices climb at double-digit rates on a year-over-year basis during the first quarter of 2021.

Thursday's presentation noted that the economic recovery, both in the U.S. and globally, has raised inflationary pressures which will ultimately lead to an increase in the 30-year fixed mortgage to an average of 3.2% in 2021.

​Consumer price inflation is accelerating due to higher costs for a number of goods and commodities, including oil, gasoline, lumber, moving and storage fees, household appliances, rents, and houses, which have reached record-highs.

"As mortgage rates increase, the frenzied multiple-offer situation will become less prevalent by year's end, as affordability challenges squeeze out some buyers and more inventory reaches the market," Yun said.

Although the low supply of housing has played a significant role in home price surges, Yun expects more home construction, a growing willingness among homeowners to list properties due to an increase in vaccinations, and a gradual decline in mortgage forbearance.

In addition to homebuilders' intentions to ramp-up construction, a recent NAR report – Case Studies on Repurposing Vacant Hotels/Motels into Multifamily Housing – details the idea of remodeling underutilized hotels and motels in order to help replenish the supply of affordable multifamily housing.

"With more inventory and some easing in demand, home prices are expected to shift to mid-single-digit appreciation by the fourth quarter and in 2022," Yun said.

Yun predicts that the median existing-home sales price will increase at a slower pace of 7% in 2021.

As more homes reach the market, NAR anticipates existing-home sales to grow by 10% and forecasts new home sales to jump by 20%.

The National Association of Realtors® is America's largest trade association, representing more than 1.4 million members involved in all aspects of the residential and commercial real estate industries.

With little major economic news, it was quiet for mortgage markets last week, and rates ended nearly unchanged.

A lack of inventory remained a major obstacle for the housing sector, as April existing home sales unexpectedly fell 3% from March. Despite the modest decline, sales still were 34% higher than a year ago (which is somewhat misleading due to the partial shutdown of the economy at that time) and 11% higher than April 2019. The median existing-home price jumped 19% from last year at this time to a record level of $341,600.

On a darker note, the number of homes for sale was 21% lower than a year ago. This represents just a 2.4-month supply nationally, well below the 6-month supply which is considered a healthy balance between buyers and sellers. Given the critical need for more homes in many areas, the report on housing starts released last week was a bit disappointing. In April, housing starts fell 10% from March, which was below expectations. Builders say that rising prices and shortages for land, materials, and skilled labor are restraining the pace of construction.
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As the economy gradually improves, it is expected that the Fed at some point will reduce the loose monetary policy measures implemented during the pandemic to help the recovery. In the detailed minutes from the April 28 Fed meeting released last Wednesday, investors primarily were seeking guidance on the timing for scaling back the Fed's massive bond buying program. According to the minutes, some officials felt that if the economy continued to improve rapidly "it might be appropriate at some point in upcoming meetings to begin discussing a plan" for a reduction in bond purchases. Investors who were hoping for a more precise time frame were disappointed.

Investors will continue watching global Covid case counts and vaccine distribution. Beyond that, New Home Sales will be released today and Pending Home Sales on Thursday. The core PCE price index, the inflation indicator favored by the Fed, will come out on Friday.

The national median home-sale price shot up 14.4% year-over-year to $336,200 last month in the most substantial increase since July 2013, according to a report by real estate brokerage Redfin.

Indeed, bidding wars are happening in markets across the country as many Americans working remotely seek larger spaces. As a result, up to 36% of homes that sold last month went for over their asking price, Redfin data shows, while uneven supply and demand continues to send home prices soaring.

“This is the strongest seller’s market since at least 2006,” Redfin Chief Economist Daryl Fairweather said in the report. “Buyers outnumber sellers by such a huge margin that many homeowners are staying put because they know how hard it would be to find a place to move to. It seems like the only move-up buyers who are confident enough to list their homes are those who are relocating to a more affordable area where they’ll have an edge on the local competition."

Across the country, the median sale prices increased in all of the largest metro areas in the country tracked by Redfin except for San Francisco. Meanwhile, Connecticut cities like Bridgeport and New Haven along with Camden, N.J. saw the largest price hikes, per the findings. Pittsburgh, Penn. and West Palm Beach, Fla. also saw some of the largest increases in home price growth, too.
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And when it comes buying a new home, single women seem to be leading the charge. Unmarried women made up 15.7% of total home purchases throughout the U.S. for the fourth quarter of 2020, that's compared with 15.3% in the previous year, a separate Redfin report published earlier in March shows.

One year into the pandemic, rental rates continue to creep up in metro Orlando.

Unlike more expensive metros like New York, San Francisco and Boston where Zillow Group Inc.'s Observed Rent Index has fallen -8.8%, -9.2% and -6.3% respectively from January 2020 to January 2021, the typical rents in Orlando are up 2.2%compared to last year, rising from $1,560 to $1,594. Nationwide, rents have risen 0.5% on average during that same time period.

According to a new Zillow report, rents in the Orlando area's wealthier neighborhoods are up just 1.5% year over year, but they're up 3.4% in the least-expensive ZIP codes. That's a 1.9 percentage point difference.

Central Florida's multifamily housing sector continues to see "enormous growth," Caleb Keenan, COO of Altamonte Springs-based apartment developer LeCesse Development Corp., previously said. "We keep waiting for it to slow down, but there are such good long-term fundamentals. It's a hot market."

Roughly 7,517 apartments were built in the Orlando area during the past year, according to CoStar Group research. That's well above the region's historical average of 4,049 units.
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Florida's other metros on the list include:

• Miami/Fort Lauderdale, where the wealthier neighborhoods are up just 2% year over year, but they're up 4.5% in the least-expensive ZIP codes.
• North Port/Sarasota/Bradenton: 3.4% versus 4.9%
• Fort Myers: 4.9% versus 5.9%
• Lakeland: 4.7% versus 7.2%
• Tampa: 6.2% versus 6.9%
• Jacksonville: 6.6% for both
• Melbourne: 6.4% versus 7.3%

For some other parts of the country, it was a different story.

"This past year saw widespread adoption of work-from-home policies, especially for higher-income renters who previously paid top dollar for proximity to their workplace," Zillow senior economist Jeff Tucker said in a prepared statement. "Demand for these rentals took a hit as many leapt into homeownership, while the flow of new renters entering these sub-markets dried up, at least temporarily."

Among the 52 large metros the Seattle-based real estate company analyzed, the areas with the widest rent affordability gaps are: New York (13.4%), Boston (9.6%), San Francisco (8.7%), Atlanta (7.6%), Seattle (6.3%), Washington, D.C. (5.9%) and Chicago (5.5%).
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Zillow classified rents into tiers at the ZIP code level, where the rents were split by thirds. Variation in rents between the lowest tier (most affordable) and highest tier (most expensive) were evaluated using average year-over-year change.

A potential sale of Shaquille O'Neal's local lakefront home is no more.

A sale no longer is pending for the Windermere estate of the retired NBA star, according to Realtor.com. The house, listed four times since 2018 without landing a buyer, had a sale pending since Jan. 25, but now is listed as off the market.

It is unknown why the potential deal for the mansion, listed at $16.5 million, fell through. Tiffany Pantozzi of Side Real Estate, who represented the seller, and Jason Fulmer of Folio Real Estate, who represented the potential buyer, both declined to comment. 

However, the sprawling 31,000-square-foot property has proved to be a tough sale. The list price in November was cut by $3 million as Pantozzi held discussions with multiple interested buyers. 

The house is priced far above Orlando’s average luxury sales price of $1.38 million, according to the Institute for Luxury Home Marketing. In fact, the house would be Central Florida’s most expensive active listing if it was on the market, according to data from the Orlando Regional Realtor Association.
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Plus, the 30-year-old home needs some renovations, Pantozzi previously told OBJ. 

The home at 9927 Giffin Court, inside the Isleworth Golf & Country Club, combines classic luxury features with amenities specific to a basketball pro. The 12-bedroom, 11.5-bathroom home contains an indoor basketball court, a cigar bar with walk-in humidor and a showroom-style garage capable of holding 17 vehicles. That’s in addition to the home theater, private boat dock and 95-foot swimming pool with rock waterfall.